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The Yen’s Post-Intervention Gains Still Depend on Expectations of Bank of Japan Rate Hikes

From late July to early August 2026, coordinated intervention by Japan, the U.S. Treasury, and South Korea drove the yen up by about 5%. By August 13, market pricing put the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September at 76%, up from 24% on July 30. The yen’s performance after the intervention thus became linked to whether the Bank of Japan would tighten policy further. Reuters discussed these rate-hike bets in the context of market developments following the coordinated intervention.